Never Forget - Live, Learn and Go Forward

Numbers – Probability – Playing the odds

With the recent tragedy that took place on the campus of Virginia Tech there has been much debate, at least where I live, concerning gun control. There have been cries for more control, some for enforcement of the existing laws and others just crying because of the heart breaking loss of innocent life.

People who say that we don’t need more gun control love to use statistics to back themselves us. Here in Florida it is legal to carry concealed handguns, with a permit of course.

I thought I’d throw out some of the statistics that I’ve heard on this issue.

In 2003, your odds of dying from an injury were 1 in 1,755.

Your odds of dying from a motor vehicle accident were 1 in 6,050.

Your odds of dying from a handgun incident were 1 in 24,400 while your odds of dying from a drug overdose were 1 in 31,508

In case you ever wondered what the odds of dying from a poisonous snake bite are, here’s the website:

http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm

Pretty good odds overall wouldn’t you say – unless you were sitting in the classroom on the campus of Virginia Tech.

You see odds are good for large groups and they tend to give us a “big picture” outlook. So when something happens to us and we mention it to others sometimes we get sympathy, sometimes we get annoyance, mostly we just get blank stares.

When play a game, like TBJ a certain way/style/fashion and then notice that it’s not working any longer you have a couple of choices:

Continue with your style – blame variance problems and just “wait it out”
Analyze what has changed to produce such a different result

So you go back and review your playing habits/style. You see that you are still doing an aggressive progression game that should be working. I mean after all you’ve based this style of play upon Stanford Wong’s CTS book. You wait until you lose a hand, then bet 1/7, 1/3 and finally all-in. According to Mr. Wong, the grandfather of TBJ, your odds of winning one of those bets is 86% isn't it? I mean the odds of losing 4 hands in a row are what?

Finally it dawns on when you realize that the reason that your aggressive progression style of play is not having the same results. Why?

Then you go back and look at your recorded results and what do you see – lets post some ACTUAL data shall we?

April 11, 2007. $50 SNG table and you’re in seat 7 (great seat)

Dealer Up Dealers Result
Card Final Cards
7 18 Loss
Queen 22 Win – dealer bust
Queen 20 Loss
8 21 Loss
Ace 20 Loss
8 18 Loss
3 23 Win – dealer bust
Queen 20 Loss
4 18 Loss
Jack 20 Loss
10 17 Loss
6 21 Loss

The dealer drew to 19, 20 or 21 6/12 times (50%). The dealer only bust 2/12 times or (16.7%)

Probability charts tell us that the dealer should draw to 19, 20 or 21 38.6% of the time. In addition the dealer should bust 28.2% of the time.

Now, taking the above figures and using a binomial calculator we find that the probability of the dealer only busting is 19.1%.

How about drawing to 19, 20 or 21? Using the same mathematical resources we find the probability of the dealer having 19, 20 or 21 6 times in 12 hands to be 16%.

Wow, how unlucky can one person get? Unless the results are purposefully and deliberately skewed.

You see, statistics sound good and your probability of winning a single hand of BJ is 44%. So the shills of Bet21.com, the flunkies and wanna be owners try and dismiss these and other results by saying the sample size is too small or it’s distorted. Is my sample size small – yes because it’s just me. Is it distorted – only if Bet21.com is the crocked site that some believe it to be.

Just stick it out and it’ll come around the naysayers post. The trend is your friend, probability and numbers don’t matter in the short term. You’re safe to play and risk your money. Just like you’re safe at school. I mean according to the statistics your odds of dying are miniscule.

Yeah - Tell that to dead students at Virginia Tech who had their lives tragically cut short by an out of control, evil, psychotic mad man. To the survivors, friends and family members may you somehow find peace and comfort in your time of loss. The prayers of many in this country are with you.

Weapons of Mass Destruction & Blackjack

What do these two have in common? Is there an Al Quida threat for the next UBT event? Maybe it refers to Joe eating ten super deluxe burritos and playing at the tables? No again. It’s an analogy. Let me explain.

In the early 2000’s there was evidence that weapons of mass destruction existed in Iraq. Some was based on intelligence, covert, overt and in retrospect fabricated. Saddam Hussein relished the attention and did nothing to debunk the theories – in fact some of his actions actually perpetuated the theory that Iraq did have these weapons of mass destruction. In hindsight it was nothing more that a big game of chicken with neither side blinking.

So in April 2003 the US invaded Iraq on the basis that there were weapons of mass destruction and that they would be found. Days turned into weeks, weeks turned into months and now months have turned into years. Still no weapons of mass destruction have been found.

Now there are those who claim that the 20 canisters of VX gas proved that the weapons of mass destruction were there. Others point to the current use of Chlorine Gas Clouds as a “form” of weapons of mass destruction. Those people are reaching to justify their beliefs when in reality they were conned.

Bet21.com is like Saddam and I feel like President Bush, only better looking and much more articulate :D

There have been broken promises by Bet21.com regarding the deposit bonus money – just like Saddam broke the no-fly zone. Bet21.com didn’t bother to talk about it, how they intend to make good on it, etc. Saddam simply said, “It’s my country I’ll do what I want”.

Now the non-random seating fiasco developed and was SO obvious that everyone, and I mean everyone, noticed and commented on it – except Bet21.com. Seems like when Colin Powell showed chemical weapons trucks at the UN meeting along with all the other intelligence everyone was talking about that too – except Saddam. Can you see where I’m going with this?

I truly believe that there is a software “switch” somewhere whereby with a push of a button the people who make decisions at Bet21.com can make the cards harder or easier based upon what the dealer gets, not the players. That’s why I’ve tracked the dealer’s hands and outcomes.

My philosophy is simple – it’s not what I have that matters. It’s what the dealer ends up with that’s more important. I’ve posted some preliminary data and there’s a whole lot more where that came from. The only thing is at what point do you stop, take two steps back and ask yourself why?

Principles are one thing that I hold to dearly and they guide me often – sometimes getting me into hot water. Sometimes when we ask questions we aren’t really “happy” with the answers we get.

Random My Ass!

Random – proceeding, made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern: the random selection of numbers.

The word random is used to express lack of purpose, cause, order, or predictability in non-scientific parlance. A random process is a repeating process whose outcomes follow no describable deterministic pattern, but follow a probability distribution.

The term randomness is often used in statistics to signify well defined statistical properties, such as lack of bias or correlation.

Does this apply to Bet21.com? In a single word: NO!

Since my last posting I’ve been a busy little beaver playing numerous sit n go BJ tournaments at Bet21.com. Why you ask?

Simple I had 215 tournament dollars to use and I can’t “cash them out”. So I might as well put them to good scientific use.

What I found was astonishing.

Since the last “software update” Bet21.com has this “habit” of assigning people seats 1-7. Now for the uninitiated to elimination blackjack (EBJ) seating position is crucial to your longevity. Players who are “on the button” (OTB) means they have to bet first. This is a distinct disadvantage since all the other players can then know how much they need to bet in order to beat you (get the high) or how little to bet in order to (get the low).

I played 6 Blackjack tournament games on April 11, 2007 and the results were nothing if not eye opening.

But first some background:

Looking at just four (4) separate things:
Dealer having an Ace showing, Dealer getting BJ, Dealer drawing to 20 or 21 (without BJ) and Dealer Busting.

The frequency of this occurring is:
Dealer showing Ace – 7.7%
Dealer getting BJ - 4.75%
Dealer drawing to 20-21 - 25.2%
Dealer busting out - 28.2%

In the six (6) games that I played there was a total of 69 hands: Here is the frequency that occurred:

Dealer showing Ace – 7/69 10.1%
Dealer getting BJ - 4/69 5.8%
Dealer drawing to 20-21 - 24/69 34.8%
Dealer busting out - 9/69 13.0%

In one game in particular these were the dealer’s cards:

K-17, 2-21, 7-17, 4-19, A-20, J-17, 8-20, 3-18. I was eliminated on hand 8. I had 1 win (20 vs. 17) and 2 pushes (17 & 20).

Now this is a small sample size to be sure but trust me I have 1000+ hands that I am working on and will post the results later.

Bottom Line: Bet21.com is RIGGED.

Statistically this is not an anomaly but a deliberate and thought out decision to quicken their games in order to increase the rake at their tables.

But wait…there’s more…

Bet21 Customer Service

One day, a company, called Bet21.com looked around and decided that they wanted a change. So they set out on a journey on the internet. They posted and advertised for new players and kept going criss crossing the land until the government passed a bill called UIGEA which resembled a river.

The river was wide and swift, and Bet21.com stopped to reconsider their business plan & situation. Bet21.com couldn't see any way across. So they began to recruit certain players and shills all along their player network. Bet21.com checked all their players, including Team UBT, all the while thinking that they had come to far to turn back.

Suddenly, Bet21.com saw FGK playing on their site every day. They decided to use FGK for advertising and to spread the word to new players thereby helping to improve their financial situation until UIGEA was repealed.

"Hellooo Mr. FGK" called Bet21.com, "Would you be so kind as to give me a ride on your back across the river?"

"Well now, Bet21.com! How do I know that if I try to help you, you wont try to screw me?" asked FGK hesitantly.

"Because," Bet21.com replied, "If I try to screw you, then I would die too, for you see I cannot swim!"

Now this seemed to make sense to the FGK. But he asked. "What about when I get close to the bank? You could still try to screw me and get back to the shore!"

"This is true," agreed Bet21.com, "But then I wouldn't be able to get to the other side of the river!"

"Alright then...how do I know you won’t just wait till after the $25,000 tournament and THEN screw me?" said the frog.

"Ahh...," crooned Bet21.com "Because you see, once you've taken me to the other side of this river, I will be so grateful for your help, that it would hardly be fair to reward you by screwing you now would it?!"

So the FGK agreed to take Bet21.com across the river. He swam over to the bank and settled himself near the mud to pick up his passenger. Bet21.com crawled onto FGK's back.

The muddy waters of controversy swirled around them, but FGK stayed the course so Bet21.com would not suffer. He kicked strongly through the first half of the stream and his critics, his flippers paddling wildly against the current.

Halfway across the river, FGK suddenly felt a sharp sting in his back and, out of the corner of his eye, got some e-mails from Bet21.com and removed them from his inbox. A deadening numbness began to creep into his limbs.

"You fool!" croaked FGK, "Now we shall both die! Why on earth did you do that?"

Bet21.com (the scorpion) shrugged, and did a little jig on the drowning FGK's back.

"I could not help myself. It is my nature."

Then they both sank into the muddy waters of the swiftly flowing river.

Self destruction - "It’s my Nature", said Bet21.com

A thoughtful analogy

One day as the Little Red Hen was typing on his keyboard he found a discrepancy in his deposit bonus account.

"This deposit bonus should be redeemed," he said. "Who will discuss this with Bet21.com?"

"Not I," said the Duck.
"Not I," said the Cat.
"Not I," said the Dog.

"Then I will," said the Little Red Hen. And he did.

Soon the e-mails grew more and more disturbing.

"The CS department is not very nice," said the Little Red Hen. "Who will help me spread the word about the deposit bonus problem?"

"Not I," said the Duck.
"Not I," said the Cat.
"Not I," said the Dog.

"Then I will," said the Little Red Hen. And he did.

When the thread was started, the Little Red Hen said, "Who keep up the pressure and start blogging and Google searches?"

"Not I," said the Duck.
"Not I," said the Cat.
"Not I," said the Dog.

"Then I will," said the Little Red Hen. And he did.

When customer service didn’t answer the issue, the Little Red Hen said, "Who will take this problem to the proper authorities?"

"Not I," said the Duck.
"Not I," said the Cat.
"Not I," said the Dog.

"Then I will," said the Little Red Hen. And he did. He took the information to Canada and proceeded to discuss the problem with the people who issue permits.

Who will boycott Bet21.com to make a symbolic point?"

"Not I," said the Duck.
"Not I," said the Cat.
"Not I," said the Dog.

"Then I will," said the Little Red Hen. And he did.

Then the people at Bet21.com told the Little Red Hen that yes, there was a discrepancy and that if they were given more time it would be handled. For his problems they gave the Little Red Hen 50 tourney dollars.

He decided to look at the big picture and understand why it had taken so long. Then he said, "Who will turn these tourney dollars into cash?"

"Oh! I will," said the Duck.
"And I will," said the Cat.
"And I will," said the Dog.

"No, No!" said the Little Red Hen. "I will do that." And he did, turning the 50 tourney dollars into 215 tourney dollars and over 120 in cash.

Now the Duck, the Cat and the Dog started to attack the Little Red Hen.

“Hey how come you got something and I didn’t” the Duck said.
“You’re a traitor to your own cause,” said the Cat
“So much for your principles, you’re a turncoat,” said the Dog

But the Little Red Hen just smiled. You didn’t notice the situation, you didn’t write the letters, you didn’t do your homework, you didn’t join the boycott and you don’t even play at the site,” said the Little Red Hen. “So why should I share my hard work with you?”

It’s good to be me thought the Little Red Hen.

Run FGK Run

What the heck happened?

I declared a truce with them because I had received a promise of action, a small token as a good faith measure and something else that I’m not at liberty to say.

My mail goal in this endeavor was to get Bet21.com to acknowledge that yes, a problem exists and that yes, they are aware of it and that a suitable resolution was/is in the works.

Unfortunately there have been many people who have either misconstrued my intentions or have been using this as a device to further THEIR own agendas.

I have said in the past and I will state it again. I am an independent person in this quest. I do not encourage others to join with me, unless it is their desire. I do this on my own. It’s kind of like when Forrest Gump was jogging back and forth across the US. People didn’t understand and thought there was some deeper meaning until finally there was a great big following when suddenly Forrest just stopped…

Have I stopped…Is the quest over…Is this the end…what’s next?

My quest will stop when I have what is rightfully mine. I understand that in the grand scheme of things there are priorities and that as much as I would love to think that returning my deposit bonus money is a priority for Bet21.com in reality it isn’t.

If Bet21.com folded up shop today and closed their doors what would happen?

If playing Elimination Blackjack were removed from the web would it matter?

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear does it make a noise?

Armistice Day

When is enough enough?

At what point do you throw the baby out with the bathwater?

My quest for the Mystical Deposit Bonus is not over. But it is time to give it a rest.

Yes I have received feedback from Bet21.com and the minions that work there.

I have proof that intelligent life forms do exist behind their numerous e-mails.

As a token they have given me fifty (50) tournament dollars in hopes of keeping me “quiet”.

Now as a man of principle I can not be bought (at least not so cheaply). I feel that I have made my point.

This olive branch by Bet21.com, to me, acknowledges that yes there is a problem and they have recognized that it exists.

Why is it not being addressed immediately? At this point why don’t I push in and “go for the kill?”

That was not my original intention nor was it my goal.

Why would I kill the Golden Goose? When given magic beans should I plant them or cook them? Am I about the here and now or do I look at the future?

Being the visionary that I am I have decided that it was time to step back and look at the overall landscape. Yes I have identified a problem and it has been acknowledged.

The question is HOW LONG BEFORE IT IS RESOLVED?

What’s next?

What great evil lurks in the shadows that hinders the hobbies of millions?

Could it be UIGEA?